Greenland’s Funeral, Shipping’s Feast: The Unmatched Stupidity of 2026
Look at a map of the Arctic in January 2026. To a shipping CEO, the vanishing white expanse is a "Golden Waterway"—a shortcut that shaves weeks off global transit. To a climate physicist, it is the Albedo Flip: the moment we traded a planetary mirror for a heat-absorbing maw. We are literally cheering for the funeral of an ice sheet because it makes our sneakers arrive faster.
I. The 50% Error: Our Models are Based on a Fantasy
For decades, climate policy was built on the CLIMAP (1981) data, which estimated that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was only 3°C to 4°C colder than today. This led to a "conservative" estimate of climate sensitivity. However, two groundbreaking studies have shattered this baseline:
- Tierney et al. (Nature, 2020): Used "data assimilation" to prove the ocean was much colder than previously thought.
- Seltzer et al. (Nature, 2021): Used noble gases in groundwater to confirm that land temperatures were 6.1°C colder.
This is a 50% correction. If a mere 6-degree drop buried New York under two miles of ice, our current 1.5°C rise—and the 4°C to 10°C we have already "bought" with current CO2 levels—represents a planetary transformation that our civilization is not built to survive. Current models are not just conservative; they are fundamentally outdated because they underestimated the Earth's "volume knob" from the start.
II. The 12-Bomb Pulse: The Ocean’s Warning
While politicians focus on "20-year averages" to move the goalposts, the Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) tells the real story. In 2025, the ocean absorbed an additional 23 Zettajoules of energy.
90% of our excess heat is going into the water. Surface temperatures are just the tip of the iceberg; the ocean is a massive thermal battery that is currently being "overcharged." As James Hansen (2023) points out in "Global Warming in the Pipeline," this energy must eventually manifest as surface warming. We aren't waiting for 1.5°C; we are living in a 4°C world that just hasn't finished heating up yet.
III. The Ocean Triple Threat: Acid, Heat, and Suffocation
The "stupidity" of celebrating shipping routes becomes clear when you look at the chemistry of the water those ships sail on:
1. Acidification: The ocean absorbs 1 million tons of CO2 every hour. This has already caused a 30% increase in acidity. As water warms, its ability to soak up CO2 drops, creating a feedback loop where more CO2 stays in the air.
2. Deoxygenation: Hotter water cannot hold oxygen. We are seeing "Oxygen Minimum Zones" (dead zones) expand across millions of square kilometers. We are suffocating the marine food chain while we plan new trade routes over its grave.
3. The Greenland Lid: The very meltwater we cheer for acts as a "lid" of fresh water, stalling the AMOC (Atlantic circulation). This stops the ocean from "breathing," locking heat in the deep and preventing oxygen from reaching life below.
IV. Why "Net Zero" is a Moronic Goal
"Net Zero is a political accounting trick. It assumes the house will stop burning if we just stop throwing new matches on the fire."
At 426 ppm of CO2 and 1,930+ ppb of Methane, the "matches" already in the air are enough to finish the job. Focusing on Net Zero ignores the 12-bomb-per-second pulse already happening. We don't need to balance our current pollution; we need to ACTIVELY REMOVE the carbon and methane that is already there. Anything less than atmospheric restoration to 280 ppm is just managing the speed of our collapse.
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